Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal says that 2024 will be a great year for the top two digital assets by market cap.
According to Pal, current market conditions in a way mirror those found in 2018 prior to a stock market and crypto bottom, suggesting that digital assets should see significant gains in the next 18 to 24 months due to rising adoption rates.
“As soon as the Fed pivoted, it was a complete change in markets. 2018 had seen the kind of falls we see now, about 20-30% falls. It was sharp, it was nasty, [and] everyone was terrified, and then what happened was that the Fed went ‘Okay, sorry yep, we see the economic data is falling apart, inflation’s coming lower, so we’re going to stop.’
I think the S&P  did 15%, oil did something about similar and then the NASDAQ did about 20%. Exponential age stocks, the growth technology stocks, did about 24%.
Bitcoin in nine months did about 300% or 400%, as did ETH. So these were staggering gains that came out of the environment. I’ve always referred to it as a beach ball being kept underwater because the adoption trend is still there.”
Pal says that Metcalfe’s Law is the reason why he believes BTC and ETH will shine starting next year.
Metcalfe’s Law states that the value of a network is directly related to the number of users it has.
“What’s fascinating about the adoption trend this time around, particularity in ETH, is the volumes have remained reasonably high. The number of active users has remained high. The total value transacted, which is the other part of the Metcalfe’s Law equation, has actually come down as the price of NFTs [non-fungible tokens] have come down, but the other measures look like it’s robust.
[In] 2018, we saw a much higher fall in daily active users because it was earlier in the network adoption phase, but this time around we get to build on top of what we built on from the last cycle, so that makes me very constructive overall.
So here we are on the long-term adoption cycle where Metcalfe’s Law kicks in, and this is the thing that drives the exponential gains. Every time we get to this situation, we get new highs within about 18 months, maximum two years… So I’m expecting 2023 to be a decently good year and 2024 to be an extremely good year.”
Bitcoin is changing hands for $16,720 at time of writing while Ethereum is moving for $1,182, both fractional dips on the day.
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